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28 mai

....

拿得起放得下是一句很牛逼的话,避免放不下的办法就是他妈根本不拿

Living in a crisis time

As I took a gelance at the latest FT Deutschland, some shining slogans simply jumped into my eyes as follows...

UBS will sell its 15.9 Bn shares at a discout rate at 15.7%

UBS was urged to seperate its IBD....

Allianz will sell Dresden Bank....

.........

So lucky that I'm not going to graduate in this dark year for bankers

wish all friends aiming banking will find good employer.

25 mai

一个校长的风险规避意识与责任(zz,新华网)

他矮,胖胖的。
他所在的中学,是四川安县桑枣中学,是一所初级中学,在绵阳周边非常有名。学校因教学质量高,连续13年都是全县中考第一名,周围家长都拼命把孩子往里送。学生最多的班,有80多名学生,最前排的学生几乎坐在老师下巴前。
地震来临时,他正在绵阳办事。大地震动,他站不稳,只好与学校的总务长互相抱着。
手机打不通,电话断了,第一波震荡过去后,他立即驱车往地处重灾区的学校赶。
车开得飞快,路上他一句话也不说。
他惦记着学校那栋没有通过验收的实验教学楼,心里最怕的是那栋楼出事。
上世纪80年代中,那栋楼建设时,学校没有找正规的建筑公司,断断续续地盖了两年多。到后来,没有人敢为这栋楼验收。
新的实验教学楼盖好了,老师和学生谁也不愿意搬进去,哪个都知道没有人敢验收的楼,建筑质量是什么样的成色。
当时,他还是普通教师,是学校为数不多的党员之一,别人不敢搬,他只好带头搬。
搬进新楼时,新楼的楼梯栏杆都是摇摇晃晃的。灯泡各式各样,参差不齐,教室本应雪白的墙上,只有底灰,什么都没有。
后来,他当领导了,下决心一定要修这栋楼。
1997年,他把与这栋新楼相连的一栋厕所楼拆除了。因为他发现,厕所楼的建筑质量很差,污水锈蚀了钢筋。他怕建筑质量不高的厕所楼牵连同样质量可疑的新楼,要求施工队重新在一楼的安全处搭建了厕所,这样,虽然高层教室上课的同学上厕所不太方便,但是,孩子们安全。
1998年,他发现新楼的楼板缝中填的不是水泥,而是水泥纸袋。他生气,找正规建筑公司,重新在板缝中老老实实地灌注了混凝土。
1999年,他又花钱,将已经不太新的楼原来华而不实、却又很沉重的砖栏杆拆掉,换上轻巧美观结实的钢管栏杆。接着,他又对这栋楼动了大手术,将整栋楼的22根承重柱子,按正规的要求,从37厘米直径的三七柱,重新灌水泥,加粗为50厘米以上的五零柱,他动手测量,每根柱子直径加粗了15厘米。
这栋实验教学楼,建筑时才花了17万元,光加固就花了40多万元。
学校没有钱,他一点点向教育局要,领导支持,他修楼的钱就这样左一个5万元、右一个5万元的化缘而来。
教学楼时刻要用,他就与施工单位协调,利用寒暑假和周末,蚂蚁啃骨头般,一点点将这栋有16个教室的楼修好。
对新建的楼,他的要求更是严。楼外立面贴的大理石面,只贴一下不行,他不放心,怕掉下来砸到学生,他让施工者每块大理石板都打四个孔,然后用四个金属钉挂在外墙上,再粘好。建筑外檐装修的术语讲,这叫“干挂”。
因此,即使是如前些天的大地震,教学楼的大理石面,没有一块掉下来。
他知道,教学楼不建结实,早晚会出事,出了事,没法向娃娃家长交代。
不是没有见过出事的学校,有的学校墙没弄结实倒塌砸到学生,有的学校组织不好,造成学生踩踏事故。
他不能让这样的危险降临在自己学生的身上。于是,他从2005年开始,每学期要在全校组织一次紧急疏散的演习。
会事先告知学生,本周有演习,但娃娃们具体不知道是哪一天。等到特定的一天,课间操或者学生休息时,学校会突然用高音喇叭喊:全校紧急疏散!
每个班的疏散路线都是固定的,学校早已规划好。两个班疏散时合用一个楼梯,每班必须排成单行。每个班级疏散到操场上的位置也是固定的,每次各班级都站在自己的地方,不会错。
教室里面一般是9列8行,前4行从前门撤离,后4行从后门撤离,每列走哪条通道,娃娃们早已被事先教育好。孩子们事先还被告知的有,在2楼、3楼教室里的学生要跑得快些,以免堵塞逃生通道;在4楼、5楼的学生要跑得慢些,否则会在楼道中造成人流积压。
学校紧急疏散时,他让人记时,不比速度,只讲评各班级存在的问题。
刚搞紧急疏散时,学生当是娱乐,半大孩子除了觉得好玩外,还认为多此一举,有反对意见,但他坚持。
后来,学生老师都习惯了,每次疏散都井然有序。
他对老师的站位都有要求。老师不是上完课甩手就走,而是在适当的时候要站在适当的位置,他认为适当的时候是:下课后、课间操、午饭晚饭,放晚自习和紧急疏散时——都是教学楼中人流量最大的时候;他认为适当的位置是:各层的楼梯拐弯处。
老师之所以被要求站在那里的原因是,拐弯处最容易摔,孩子如果在这里摔了,老师毕竟是成人,力气大些,可以一把把孩子从人流中抓住提起来,不至于让别人踩到娃娃。
每周二都是学校规定的安全教育时间,让老师专门讲交通安全和饮食卫生等。他管得严,集体开会时,他不允许学生拖着自己的椅子走,要求大家必须平端椅子——因为拖着的椅子会绊倒人,后面的学生看不到前面倒的人,还会往前涌,所有的踩踏都是这样出现的。
那天地震,他不在。学生们正是按着平时学校要求、他们也练熟了的方式疏散的。地震波一来,老师喊:所有人趴在桌子下!学生们立即趴下去。
老师们把教室的前后门都打开了,怕地震扭曲了房门。
震波一过,学生们立即冲出了教室,老师站在楼梯上,喊:“快一点,慢一点!”
老师们说,喊出的话自己事后想想,都觉得矛盾和可笑。但当时的心情,既怕学生跑得太慢,再遇到地震,又怕学生跑得太快,摔倒了——关键时候的摔倒,可不是玩的。
那天,连怀孕的老师都按照平时的学校要求行事。地震强烈得使挺着大肚子的女老师站不住,抓紧黑板跪在讲台上,但也没有先于学生逃走。唯一不合学校要求的是,几个男生护送着怀孕的老师同时下了楼。
由于平时的多次演习,地震发生后,全校师生,2200多名学生,上百名老师,从不同的教学楼和不同的教室中,全部冲到操场,以班级为组织站好,用时1分36秒。
学校所在的安县紧临着地震最为惨烈的北川,学校外的房子百分之百受损,90多位教师的房子都垮塌了,其中70多位老师,家里砸得什么都没有了。
他从绵阳疯了似地冲回来,冲进学校,看到的是这样的情景:8栋教学楼部分坍塌,全部成为危楼。他的学生,11岁到15岁的娃娃们,都挨得紧紧地站在操场上,老师们站在最外圈,四周是教学楼。
他最为担心的那栋他主持修理了多年的实验教学楼,没有塌,那座楼上的教室里,地震时坐着700多名学生和他们的老师。
老师们迎着他报告:学生没事,老师们都没事。
他后来说,那时,他浑身都软了。55岁的他,哭了。
通信恢复后,老师们接到家长的电话,会扯着大声骄傲地告诉家长:我们学校,学生无一伤亡,老师无一伤亡——说话时眼中噙着泪。
他的老师们收入都不高,教师平均月收入1126.78元。学校的墙上写着:“责任高于一切,成就源于付出。”
那时,在大震时分布四处的学生家长们的伤亡数尚在统计中,学校墙外的镇子上,也是房倒屋塌,求救声一片。但是一个镇里的农村初中,却在大震之后,把孩子们带到了家长面前,告诉家长,娃娃连汗毛也没有伤一根。
他叫叶志平,是安县桑枣中学校长,四川省优秀校长。

22 mai

有时候科学比眼泪更重要

 

Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago

 

Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing
for National Geographic News

May 16, 2008

Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.

  “After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.

The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics."

They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy.

With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.

"As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.  

The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless.

"Locked in a Journal"

There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.

"We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal."

Ellis hopes that replacing the collapsed buildings with earthquake-proof structures could prevent future tragedies.

"It is more expensive to build earthquake-proof structures," he added. And the vast majority of people in Sichuan Province are anything but rich.

The Science Behind the Quake

Earthquake activity is nothing new in Beichuan.

"We have shown evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Beichuan fault since 12,000-13,000 years ago," Ellis and colleagues reported last summer.

Speaking with National Geographic News, Ellis said, "Ultimately, the [2008] earthquake is related to the continuing and inexorable collision of India with Asia, which is occurring at a rate of about 20 to 22 milimeters [just under an inch] per year."

This collision started more than 50 million years ago, when the tectonic plate beneath India crashed into the Eurasian plate. (Watch how the plates slammed into each other.)

"The Himalayas and all of Tibet was created by this collision," Ellis added.

As the Indian plate continues its slow-motion crash into Asia—sometimes in jerks marked by earthquakes—it is pushing the entire Tibetan Plateau northward.

"This earthquake was the Tibetan mountains moving east over the plains of Chengdu [the capital of Sichuan Province]," said Roger Bilham, a geoscientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the July 2007 study.

Not Just Sichuan's Problem

Study co-author Ellis said that, as the Tibetan Plateau moves northward, "the interior parts of Tibet are collapsing, rather like a soufflé taken out of the oven into cold air."

Faults along the southern, Himalayan edge of Tibet present hazards as great as those underlying the Sichuan temblor, Ellis said.

"Risk associated with the loss of collateral and lives is very high along the Himalaya, because so many people live there or immediately downstream," Ellis added.

"The risk is similarly high in Sichuan [to the east], because of the population and, like India and Nepal, the relatively poor building standards," he said.

And as India continues to pound into Tibet, "it is still creating new fault lines"—and new dangers.

11 mai

一无所有,但是在希望的田野上

不知道从什么时候起开始前怕狼后怕虎起来。

难道这就是传言中上了年纪的心理特征,对一件事情的决策总会受到目前状况的影响?

俗话说得好,软的怕硬的,硬的怕不要命的。

想想自己最近几年取得的一些成绩,都是在一无所有的情况下豁出去了干出来的。

自己有什么呢?当然过于谦虚不好,可以说,目前周围的人能在我这个阶段做到这样的不多。

但是这些又能有什么用呢?这些长期不可变现资产只能说明Financial Position,并不能给未来带来Cash Flow。在大家同时起跑的竞争中如果拘泥于过去的胜利只能是自己止步不前。

所以,在目前的竞争中,我依旧一无所有。最近的各种事情,特别是回想08年初的不愉快特别能说明这个事情。———对男人的估值用DCF通过WACC折现是不准的,还是看Balance Sheet吧。

因此,每次思路这样循环一次,努力干活的想法就加深一些。其实也是,再累能怎么样呢?能有Lehman Brothers的一半?自己还想进GS呢,岂不更甚,所以现在的工作量其实还是很Mild的。关键的关键还是GS那句话:I've basicly founded what I wanted to do in my life.

于是晚上又听了Dvorak的Aus der Neuen Welt.

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目前的状态自己很满意。

因为,每次自己害怕做不好的时候,不是继续去害怕而是马上找出对策将风险因素控制在接受范围内。

和周围的人基本和谐,国人里面结识了一些出类拔萃的人,BY,ZJ,WP,都是好样的。

和W的关系也算基本理顺,其实W一直在帮我,有意的无意的,我能有今天的状态和其也有直接的关系,我很感谢。

和鬼子们也算打开了一片局面,Philip, York,Dominik,Yuhki,大家还算混得比较熟,挺好。牢记Hao的那句话,交流质量上去了,反馈的质量自然会上去。

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明确下自己截止明年8月的目标:

·本学期成绩平均进2

·下学期拿下CFAI

·拿到IB的OFFER

·6月拿下CFAII

做一次长途旅行:找人去做Kreuzfahrt/和同学去巴西或者阿根廷/或者去非洲刚果布拉柴维尔看望水深火热的Jakob同学。

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BY同学的车技很好,希望以后W同学也可以有这个水平。虽然德国凉快,但是没有空调的车还是不能买的。准备以后夏天开BY同学的车可以桑拿减肥。对了,看书的确可以减肥,从3月17日到今天减了6斤,平均每天0.1千克,离预期每天0.122千克差20%。方差略。

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晚上在Mobile.de上看到的Bentley Arnarge很漂亮,得到BY同学的认可。目前价格51900欧,如果等丫到我毕业的时候能降到40000的话就可以考虑通过Leasing的方法搞定,每月990,还不错。

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就此搁笔

4 mai

Life under controll

I 've always been asked by myself "How long haven't you hear from yourself?" Obviously it is not in the right case when losing the voice of my heart for too long time. Actually I used to ask myself as if there's another Jiesi standing against me and gazing at me and ask:"Is it right to do it this way?"

I've got this very feeling as I was still in Higschool and found it is great as I were anonther one who could supervise my behaviors at the point of view of a third one. I used to be a passionated person. Having passion is just like having a BMW M3 with 400 HP which could not only speed up to 100km in 4 secs but also get over speed limit at the very next second.  So questioning my self is nothing but a set of safe belt which could lead me back to the right track and keep in safe.

In this semester life runs really like a roller coaster which sometimes drives me nuts. I've alway having a special feel that I'm walking on a single string that is 100 meter from the ground. Due to the heavy load there's no space for me to make any mistakes in any aspects like planning and execution. So, i've talked to my self once and once again concerning the dos and the don'ts. Well, so far so good.

Thanks to the friends who have donated so much help and tolerents on me!