Profil de Jiesi意志的胜利PhotosBlogListesPlus ![]() | Aide |
Living in a crisis timeAs I took a gelance at the latest FT Deutschland, some shining slogans simply jumped into my eyes as follows... UBS will sell its 15.9 Bn shares at a discout rate at 15.7% UBS was urged to seperate its IBD.... Allianz will sell Dresden Bank.... ......... So lucky that I'm not going to graduate in this dark year for bankers wish all friends aiming banking will find good employer. 25 mai 一个校长的风险规避意识与责任(zz,新华网)他矮,胖胖的。 22 mai 有时候科学比眼泪更重要
Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago
Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing May 16, 2008 Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake. “After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning. The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics." They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy. With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake. "As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee. The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless. "Locked in a Journal" There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been. "We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal." Ellis hopes that replacing the collapsed buildings with earthquake-proof structures could prevent future tragedies. "It is more expensive to build earthquake-proof structures," he added. And the vast majority of people in Sichuan Province are anything but rich. The Science Behind the Quake Earthquake activity is nothing new in Beichuan. "We have shown evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Beichuan fault since 12,000-13,000 years ago," Ellis and colleagues reported last summer. Speaking with National Geographic News, Ellis said, "Ultimately, the [2008] earthquake is related to the continuing and inexorable collision of India with Asia, which is occurring at a rate of about 20 to 22 milimeters [just under an inch] per year." This collision started more than 50 million years ago, when the tectonic plate beneath India crashed into the Eurasian plate. (Watch how the plates slammed into each other.) "The Himalayas and all of Tibet was created by this collision," Ellis added. As the Indian plate continues its slow-motion crash into Asia—sometimes in jerks marked by earthquakes—it is pushing the entire Tibetan Plateau northward. "This earthquake was the Tibetan mountains moving east over the plains of Chengdu [the capital of Sichuan Province]," said Roger Bilham, a geoscientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the July 2007 study. Not Just Sichuan's Problem Study co-author Ellis said that, as the Tibetan Plateau moves northward, "the interior parts of Tibet are collapsing, rather like a soufflé taken out of the oven into cold air." Faults along the southern, Himalayan edge of Tibet present hazards as great as those underlying the Sichuan temblor, Ellis said. "Risk associated with the loss of collateral and lives is very high along the Himalaya, because so many people live there or immediately downstream," Ellis added. "The risk is similarly high in Sichuan [to the east], because of the population and, like India and Nepal, the relatively poor building standards," he said. And as India continues to pound into Tibet, "it is still creating new fault lines"—and new dangers. 11 mai 一无所有,但是在希望的田野上不知道从什么时候起开始前怕狼后怕虎起来。 难道这就是传言中上了年纪的心理特征,对一件事情的决策总会受到目前状况的影响? 俗话说得好,软的怕硬的,硬的怕不要命的。 想想自己最近几年取得的一些成绩,都是在一无所有的情况下豁出去了干出来的。 自己有什么呢?当然过于谦虚不好,可以说,目前周围的人能在我这个阶段做到这样的不多。 但是这些又能有什么用呢?这些长期不可变现资产只能说明Financial Position,并不能给未来带来Cash Flow。在大家同时起跑的竞争中如果拘泥于过去的胜利只能是自己止步不前。 所以,在目前的竞争中,我依旧一无所有。最近的各种事情,特别是回想08年初的不愉快特别能说明这个事情。———对男人的估值用DCF通过WACC折现是不准的,还是看Balance Sheet吧。 因此,每次思路这样循环一次,努力干活的想法就加深一些。其实也是,再累能怎么样呢?能有Lehman Brothers的一半?自己还想进GS呢,岂不更甚,所以现在的工作量其实还是很Mild的。关键的关键还是GS那句话:I've basicly founded what I wanted to do in my life. 于是晚上又听了Dvorak的Aus der Neuen Welt. —————————— 目前的状态自己很满意。 因为,每次自己害怕做不好的时候,不是继续去害怕而是马上找出对策将风险因素控制在接受范围内。 和周围的人基本和谐,国人里面结识了一些出类拔萃的人,BY,ZJ,WP,都是好样的。 和W的关系也算基本理顺,其实W一直在帮我,有意的无意的,我能有今天的状态和其也有直接的关系,我很感谢。 和鬼子们也算打开了一片局面,Philip, York,Dominik,Yuhki,大家还算混得比较熟,挺好。牢记Hao的那句话,交流质量上去了,反馈的质量自然会上去。 —————————— 明确下自己截止明年8月的目标: ·本学期成绩平均进2 ·下学期拿下CFAI ·拿到IB的OFFER ·6月拿下CFAII 做一次长途旅行:找人去做Kreuzfahrt/和同学去巴西或者阿根廷/或者去非洲刚果布拉柴维尔看望水深火热的Jakob同学。 ——————————— BY同学的车技很好,希望以后W同学也可以有这个水平。虽然德国凉快,但是没有空调的车还是不能买的。准备以后夏天开BY同学的车可以桑拿减肥。对了,看书的确可以减肥,从3月17日到今天减了6斤,平均每天0.1千克,离预期每天0.122千克差20%。方差略。 ——————————— 晚上在Mobile.de上看到的Bentley Arnarge很漂亮,得到BY同学的认可。目前价格51900欧,如果等丫到我毕业的时候能降到40000的话就可以考虑通过Leasing的方法搞定,每月990,还不错。 ——————————— 就此搁笔 4 mai Life under controllI 've always been asked by myself "How long haven't you hear from yourself?" Obviously it is not in the right case when losing the voice of my heart for too long time. Actually I used to ask myself as if there's another Jiesi standing against me and gazing at me and ask:"Is it right to do it this way?" I've got this very feeling as I was still in Higschool and found it is great as I were anonther one who could supervise my behaviors at the point of view of a third one. I used to be a passionated person. Having passion is just like having a BMW M3 with 400 HP which could not only speed up to 100km in 4 secs but also get over speed limit at the very next second. So questioning my self is nothing but a set of safe belt which could lead me back to the right track and keep in safe. In this semester life runs really like a roller coaster which sometimes drives me nuts. I've alway having a special feel that I'm walking on a single string that is 100 meter from the ground. Due to the heavy load there's no space for me to make any mistakes in any aspects like planning and execution. So, i've talked to my self once and once again concerning the dos and the don'ts. Well, so far so good. Thanks to the friends who have donated so much help and tolerents on me! |
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